Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 50 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.9S / 81.4E (NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 PLUS /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 12 UTC: 10.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 11.1S/80.9E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.9S/80.7E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.7S/80.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.5S/80.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 14.2S/80.1E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0- THE CIRCULATION IS ORGANIZING RAPIDLY WITH WIDE SCATTERED AND CURVED BANDS. ALL THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE INTENSIFICATION (WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS IN TRADE WINDS FLOWS AND MOOSOON FLOWS, HUMID AND INSTABLE AIR IN ACTIVE PHASIS OF MJO, LOW PRESSURES, SST SUPERIOR TO 28°C). AT THIS STAGE, THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DOESN'T JUSSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNINGS.