Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 0600 UTC : 10.5S / 81.8E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 060 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/23 18 UTC: 11.2S/81.6E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 12.0S/81.4E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.7S/81.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 13.5S/80.8E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 14.3S/80.6E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.0S/80.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING ; CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND QUIKSCAT PASS AT 0032Z SHOWS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION; GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS OF TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON, WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (GOOD EQUATOWARDS AND POLEWARDS OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO SLOWLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWARDS (LIKELY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED IN THE NORTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM), AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IT.