Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5S / 81.6E (TEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 080 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 00 UTC: 10.8S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 11.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 11.7S/80.7E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.3S/80.4E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 12.9S/80.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM IS INTENSIFYING; CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND KEEP ON ORGANIZING. THE CENTRE HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE LAST HOURS, AND SEEMS TO BE LOCATED IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE CDO. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE TO INTENSIFICATION; GOOD LOW LEVEL INFLOWS OF TRADE WINDS AND MONSOON, WEAK NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR (THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED UNDER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE), AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE (GOOD EQUATOWARDS AND POLEWARDS OUTFLOW CHANNELS). MOST OF THE AVAILABLE NWP ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT TO SLOWLY TRACK THE SYSTEM SOUTHWESTWARDS AND GRADUALLY INTENSIFY IT.