Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/23 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.8S / 81.4E (TEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 996 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 06 UTC: 10.9S/81.2E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 11.2S/80.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 11.5S/80.6E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 11.9S/80.3E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.3S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 12.6S/79.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONSOLIDATING UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), BUT THE SYSTEM IS STILL UNDERGOING A SLIGHTLY UNFAVOURABLE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM REMAINED QUASI-STATIONNARY. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY ; UNDERGOING FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS, IT SHOULD INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.