Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 81.7E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 12 UTC: 12.2S/81.5E, MAX WIND=040KT. 24H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.5S/81.2E, MAX WIND=050KT. 36H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 12.9S/80.9E, MAX WIND=055KT. 48H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.0S/80.4E, MAX WIND=060KT. 60H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 13.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=065KT. 72H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.0S/78.8E, MAX WIND=070KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- "CARINA" LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS RELOCATED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS POSITION TO TAKE ACCOUNT OF LATEST AMSR-E MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (1946Z). THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE), A CDO PATTERN GOT ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. ; BUT A MODERATE EASTERN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LIMITS THE INTENSIFICATION RATE OF THE SYSTEM. THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE IS LOCATED UNDER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE CDO. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD WEAKEN AND "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.