Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.4S / 81.4E (ELEVEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/24 18 UTC: 12.8S/81.8E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 14.0S/81.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 15.1S/79.8E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 15.7S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 16.1S/78.2E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 16.5S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT SLOWLY: UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). LAST SSMI F15 AT 0258UTC AND TRMM AT 0122UTC MICROWAVES IMAGERY SHOWS A CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 6 TENTHS BANDING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND, INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.