Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.6S / 81.1E (ELEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 987 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 45 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SO: 120 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 00 UTC: 12.2S/81.0E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 12 UTC: 13.0S/80.7E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 00 UTC: 13.6S/80.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.0S/78.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.6S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=3.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY : UNDERGOING RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WIND AND MONSOON INFLOWS, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE). DURING LAST NIGHT, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ONE UNDER AN EASTERN VERTICAL WINDSHEAR CONSTRAINT. SINCE 0500UTC, WINDSHEAR SEEMS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DEEP CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN WITH 8 TENTHS BANDING ON INDOEX SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 0900 AND 1200UTC. SYSTEM IS QUASI-STATIONNARY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 3 MID-LEVEL ACTION CENTERS. AT 500HPA, HIGHS IN THE NORTHEAST AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-EAST SHOULD MAKE THE SYSTEM TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS BUT IT IS BLOCKED BY A LARGE AREA OF HIGHS IN THE SOUTH. THIS SOUTHERN HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO EVCUATE EASTWARDS AND TO PERMIT THE SYSTEM SHIPPING SOUTHWESTWARDS BEYOND 6 TO 12 HOURS. SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT TO INTENSIFY MORE RAPIDLY WITH WEAK VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND A BUILDING GOOD UPPER POLARWARD OUTLOW CHANNEL.