Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/24 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0S / 80.6E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 030 SE: 030 SO: 030 NO: 030 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 06 UTC: 12.6S/80.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 13.1S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.7S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/78.6E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.1E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAKER WINDSHEAR). ITS PATTERN FLUCTUATES ; FROM A CURVED BAND PATTERN, THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE LAST SAT PICTURES. FOR NEXT RANGES, THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO TRACK IN A RATHER WEAK ENVIRONMENT IN UPPER LEVELS. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.