Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.2S / 80.5E (TWELVE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 976 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/25 18 UTC: 12.5S/79.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 12.9S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.4E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.2S/77.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.0S/76.7E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK WINDSHEAR). THE SYSTEM SHOWS AN EMBEDDED CENTRE PATTERN OVER THE SIX LAST SAT PICTURES. POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION REMAINS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTERLY.