Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 12/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/25 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0S / 80.2E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 06 UTC: 13.6S/79.9E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 14.2S/79.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 14.7S/78.7E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.4S/77.9E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.2S/77.1E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.1S/76.3E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ CARINA IS INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY AS IT UNDERGOES RATHER FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS (GOOD TRADE WINDS INFLOW, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, WEAK TO MODERATE WINDSHEAR). BUT CONVECTION HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. RECENT MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM TRMM AT 1017UTC AND SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MORE EASTERN. MICROWAVES SSMI AT 1519UTC, LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED EVEN THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AT MIDDLE RANGE.