Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6S / 79.8E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 60 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 12 UTC: 14.4S/79.2E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 15.1S/78.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 16.0S/78.1E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 17.0S/77.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 19.0S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T AND CI=4.0+ LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS FAVOURABLE DUE TO THE HIGH PRESSURES MOVING EASTWARDS. SO, CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF. MICROWAVES SATELLITE IMAGERY SSMI AT 1519UTC SEEMS TO SHOW UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION A LITTLE BIT OUT OF PHASE WITH LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERED MORE EASTERN. IT SHOWS ALSO THAT EVEN LOW LEVEL EYE IS TOTALLY CLOSED , THE UPPER LEVEL ONE REMAINS OPENED IN THE SOUTHEAST . POTENTIAL OF INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS WITH A BUILDING UPPER POLARDWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. AT MEDIUM RANGE , CARINA SHOULD VEERING SOUTHWARDS THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARDS TOWARD A POLAR TROUGH EXISTING IN LOW AND MID LEVELS.