Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 14/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 0600 UTC : 13.1S / 79.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/4.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 972 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 040 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/26 18 UTC: 13.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/02/27 06 UTC: 13.9S/78.1E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 36H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 14.4S/77.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 15.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 15.5S/74.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 16.0S/73.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: CARINA HAS ALWAYS DIFFICULTIES TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, SHOWING DURING LAST HOURS BANDING EYE PATTERN. IT HAS SLOWN DOWN WITH A MORE WESTSOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NIGHT. IT COULD GO ON ON THAT WAY ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITHOUT TRACKING TOWARD THE TROUGH TO WEAK AND TO FAR WHICH TRANSITING TO THE SOUTH. THIS FORECAST IS DOWN ACCORDING TO MAIN LAST NWP MODELS (BKNL, NOGAPS, ARPEGE-TROPIQUES, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECATS)