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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47


RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/10/20052006
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/26 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5S / 79.7E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/4.5 /D 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 65 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 350 SO: 250 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 045 SE: 055 SO: 055 NO: 045

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/27 00 UTC: 14.2S/79.1E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 14.8S/78.3E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.3S/77.0E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 15.6S/75.5E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 15.9S/73.9E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 16.0S/72.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE CURVED BAND PATTERN, WITH TEMPORARILY VISIBLE EYE, LEADS TO CI=T=4.5.
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING VERY SLOWLY GLOBALY SOUTHWESTWARDS IN A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SLOWNESS OF ITS MOTION COULD EXPLAIN THE SLOWNESS OF ITS INTENSIFICATION.

AT MEDIUM RANGE, IT SHOULD ACCELERATE MORE WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH REBUILDING FAR TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE ENVIRONMENT WOULD THEN BE MORE FAVORABLE FOR A BETTER INTENSIFICATION, WEAKLY SHEARED, WITH GOOD POLEWARD LOW LEVEL INFLOW AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, OVER STILL WARM SST (AROUND 28°C),

WE HAVE TO INDICATE THAT ECMWF MODEL PERSITS WITH AN OTHER FORECAST AT MEDIUM RANGE, MAKING IT TRACK POLEWARDS, TOWARD A TROUGH, ON AND BEYOND THE 03/01.