Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0000 UTC : 14.5S / 79.8E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.0/5.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 80 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 300 SO: 300 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 050 SE: 060 SO: 060 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1400 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 12 UTC: 15.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 15.8S/78.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.4S/77.4E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.2E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.3S/74.6E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/73.0E, MAX WIND=075KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: LAST IR SAT PICTURES SHOW AN EYE PATTERN THAT BARELY MAINTAINS. MW IMAGERY AQUA AT 2017Z CONFIRMS FEATURE SHOWN ON TRMM AT 1503Z; THE EYE IS NOT CLOSED, DEEP CONVECTION DOES NOT EXIST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. HOWEVER, AQUA AT 2017Z 37 GHZ SHOWS A MORE REGULAR EYE. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESWARDS, ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH WEAK WINDSHEAR, GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND GOOD LOW LEVELS INFLOWS.