Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9S / 79.9E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 946 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/27 18 UTC: 15.6S/79.4E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.4S/78.9E, MAX WIND=095KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.2E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.1S/75.3E, MAX WIND=110KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.3S/73.7E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 17.5S/72.2E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE SYSTEM "CARINA" SHOWED A BANDING EYE PATTERN FOR A FEW HOURS, LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATION OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND THE EYE, THUS LEADING TO T=CI=5.5-. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARDS SLOWLY, AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A VERY FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.