Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4S / 79.7E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 85 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 400 SO: 300 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 070 SE: 100 SO: 100 NO: 070 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 00 UTC: 16.1S/79.0E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 16.8S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/76.2E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.5S/74.5E, MAX WIND=095KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.0S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.3S/72.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=5.5- THE EYEWALL STRUCTURE IS NOW CONSOLIDATED ; DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER, BUT THIS IS MORE PROBABLY DUE TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE WARMING THAN TO A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.