Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/27 AT 1800 UTC : 15.9S / 79.5E (FIFTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.0/6.0 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 930 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 100 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 17.7S/77.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 18.3S/76.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.7S/75.7E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/74.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.1S/73.3E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=6.0 THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AGAIN, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES ; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.