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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0000 UTC :
16.4S / 79.0E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 MOINS /D 1.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/02/28 12 UTC: 17.3S/78.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
24H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 18.0S/77.2E, MAX WIND=120KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
36H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.6S/76.0E, MAX WIND=120KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
48H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.9S/74.7E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
60H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.1S/73.5E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
72H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.2S/72.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=6.5
THE SYSTEM IS TOTALLY SYMETRIC, 250NM DIAMETER, WITH A SMALL EYE OF 15 NM DIAMETER.
THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IS COLDER AND COLDER, SHOWING THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING, AND THEN TO HEAD FOR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURES TO THE SOUTHWEST; IN A FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.