Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 22/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 0600 UTC : 16.5S / 78.6E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/02/28 18 UTC: 16.9S/77.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.5S/76.9E, MAX WIND=115KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.0S/76.0E, MAX WIND=110KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.6S/75.0E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 60H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 72H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.6S/73.2E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, IT HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH, THEN TO SLOW DOWN AS THE HIGH PRESSURES STRENGTHEN IN THE SOUTHWEST.THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVOURABLE AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE.