Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 23/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1200 UTC : 16.7S / 78.2E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 115 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 450 SO: 400 NO: 350 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 00 UTC: 17.3S/77.3E, MAX WIND=105KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 18.0S/76.1E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.6S/74.9E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 48H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 19.2S/74.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.6S/73.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 20.0S/72.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" KEEPS ON INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY, WITH AN HOTTER, AND A COLDER CDO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE LAST HOURS. THE SYSTEM GOES ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS INTO A REMAINING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE BEGINING OF THE RANGE, THEN INTO AN INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, THEN SOLW DOWN AS A MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE BIULD IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.