Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 24/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/02/28 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 78.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 6.5/6.5 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 06 UTC: 17.2S/77.2E, MAX WIND=105KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 24H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 17.6S/76.3E, MAX WIND=100KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 36H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.2S/75.0E, MAX WIND=090KT , INTENSE TROP. CYCL.. 48H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.7E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.0S/73.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: "CARINA" SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED A PEAK OF INTENSITY TODAY. THE LATEST METEOSAT 5 IMAGERY SHOWS A COLDER AND SMALLER EYE, AND THE LATEST MICRO-WAVE IMAGERY (SSMIS-F16 1526Z) INDICATES A SLIGHT EROSION IN THE EYEWALL. NEVERTHELESS, FOR THE MOMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE FAVOURABLE FOR "CARINA", A MORE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS IN RELATION TO COOLER SST AND TO AN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT. "CARINA" IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND THEN TO SLOW DOWN WITH THE BUILDING MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.