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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 25/10/20052006
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.9S / 77.9E
(SIXTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/6.5 MOINS /S 0.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200
50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/01 12 UTC: 17.1S/77.6E, MAX WIND=100KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
24H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 17.5S/76.7E, MAX WIND=090KT, INTENSE TROP. CYCL..
36H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.2S/75.5E, MAX WIND=080KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
48H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
60H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.4S/74.8E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.7S/74.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
ON THE THE MOST RECENT METEOSAT-5 IMAGERY, THE EYE IS HARDLY REVEALED ; NEVERTHELESS, LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR-E 2006Z) STILL SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED EYEWALL. THE FUTURE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOULD CONFIRM THAT "CARINA" STARTED WEAKENING.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SET AGAIN ON A SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK AND THUS TO UNDERGO LESS AND LESS FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT.