Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 26/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 77.8E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.5/6.5 /W 2.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 920 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 110 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/01 18 UTC: 18.2S/77.5E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.9S/77.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 19.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.8S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.2S/75.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/74.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.5+ AND CI=6.5- DURING LAST NIGHT, CARINA HAS DISORGANIZED (EYE HAS DISSAPEARED ON INDOEX IMAGERY) UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SEVERAL UNFAVOURABLE CONDITIONS. IN THE MID-LEVELS, REBUILDING HIGH PRESSURES IN THE SOUTHWEST AND HIGH PRESSURES IN THE NORTH-EAST CONSTRAIN THE SYSTEM TO VEER SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH. IT UNDERGOES NOW LESS ENREGETICS CONDITIONS (LOWER SST AROUND 26 DEGREES), AN INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND DRY ATMOSPHERE IN THE WEST AND IN THE NORTHEAST. LAST MICROWAVES IMAGERY (SSMIS AT 0239UTC AND SSAMI AT 0323UTC) CONFIRMS THIS DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION AND EYE IS NOW ERODED IN THE NORTHWEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING RAPIDLY DURING ITS TRACK SOUTHWARDS. BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND COULD ALSO VEERING SOUTHWESTWARDS OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE REBUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES.