Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 27/10/20052006 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.5S / 76.6E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 4.0/5.5 /W 1.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 940 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 200 SE: 450 SO: 350 NO: 200 50 KT NE: 090 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 090 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 00 UTC: 18.2S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.6S/73.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 18.8S/73.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 18.8S/72.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.7S/71.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.5S/70.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=4.0 AND CI=5.5 TRMM MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 0812UTC SHOWS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER TOTALLY EXPOSED AND LOCATED AT 17.3S/77.1E. LLCC HAS BEEN CONSEQUENTLY RELOCATED MORE NORTHERN AND HAS PROBABLY NOT VEERED SOUTHWARDS AS THE 0600UTC WARNING SHOWED BUT KEEPS ON TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. DEEP CONVECTION HAS IMPLODED LAST NIGHT AND "CARINA" IS WEAKENED RAPIDLY. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. - SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING WESTWARD A DRYER MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REVEALED BY INDOEX WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING BEYOND 24 TO 36 HOURS AND COULD ALSO VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS. BEYOND 36 HEURES, NWP MODELS DIFFER ON THE FORECASTED TRACK.