Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 28/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/01 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.8S / 76.3E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/5.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 955 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 75 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 06 UTC: 18.5S/75.1E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 18.9S/74.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.1S/73.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.2S/71.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 19.3S/70.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.9S/69.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=5.0-. LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND A LITTLE BIT SPEEDING UP. SEVERAL REASONS TO EXPLAIN THIS FACT : - THE MAIN REASON IS THAT WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS INCREASED DURING THE SYSTEM TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS. - DURING THIS VERY SLOWLY TRACK, SYSTEM HAS PROBABLY CONSUMED ITS ENERGETIC ENVIRONMENT AND IS NOW LOCATED OVER A NEGATIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY EXISTING SOUTH OF 16S BETWEEN 75E AND 82E. - LOW LEVEL EQUATORWARD INFLOW IS NOW INDIRECT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GON ON SOUTHWESTWARDS TO UNDERGO THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW LEVELS STEERING AND THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE.