Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 29/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.1S / 76.0E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 960 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 150 SE: 350 SO: 350 NO: 150 50 KT NE: 060 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 12 UTC: 18.7S/75.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 24H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.0S/75.2E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.3S/74.5E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 19.2S/73.7E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 19.0S/72.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.8S/72.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.5. CI=4.5+ LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, DIFFICULT TO LOCATE, IS UNDER THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF CONVECTION AND KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTH SOUTHWESTWARDS. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GO ON SOUTHWESTWARDS THEN VEERING WESTWARDS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. IT IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON WEAKENING ON THE FORECASTED RANGE ALWAYS UNDERGOING A WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.