Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 30/10/20052006 1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3S / 78.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.5 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 965 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 70 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 250 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 050 SO: 050 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/02 18 UTC: 20.2S/79.3E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 20.8S/78.9E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 20.7S/77.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 20.5S/76.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 20.2S/74.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.8S/72.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: RELOCATED CENTRE, IN THE SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARDS OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURES LOCATED IN THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS WEAKENING AND SHOULD TRACK WESTWARDS BEYOND 12 TO 18 HOURS, UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.