Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 31/10/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 19.5S / 77.0E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/4.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 980 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 55 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 50 KT NE: 010 SE: 020 SO: 020 NO: 010 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 19.0S/74.3E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.6S/72.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.2S/71.5E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.0S/70.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 17.5S/68.0E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=3.0-, CI=4.0- LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION CLEARLY APPEARS WEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARDS OVER THE LAST HOURS AND SHOULD THEN TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.