Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 32/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.5S / 77.1E (NINETEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 988 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 06 UTC: 19.3S/75.8E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 19.0S/74.2E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 36H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.5S/72.7E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 48H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.0S/70.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 60H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 17.7S/69.2E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 72H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/67.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP. DISTURBANCE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5, CI=3.0+ LOCATED WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, CARINA IS QUICKLY WEAKENING. LAST SSMI MICROWAVES IMAGERY AT 1320UTC AND AT 1540UTC CONFIRM THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS CLEARLY FAR IN THE NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE QUASI-STATIONNARY DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES BUILDING IN THE SOUTH.