Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 33/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6S / 77.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /W 1.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 994 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 100 SO: 150 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 17.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.9S/76.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.1S/75.5E, MAX WIND=020KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 15.2S/74.2E DISSIPATING. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.5-, CI=3.0- CARINA KEEPS ON WEAKENING AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS OUT OF PHASE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE RESIDUAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LLCC HAS TURNED BACK DUE TO A LOW LEVELS BUILDING RIDGE ALONG 70E AXIS IN THE PROLONGATION OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN DUE TO THE SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006 (SEE REFERRING WARNING) AND PUSH AWAY THE CARINA'S RESIDUAL VORTEX NORTHWESTWARDS. DURING ITS TRACK TOWARDS LOWER LATITUDES , CARINA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO A PERISTENT VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IN RELATIONSHIP WITH STRONG WINDS IN UPPER LEVELS REINFORCED BY THE POLARWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW OF THE SYSTEM 11-20052006.