Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 34/10/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (CARINA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.9S / 78.7E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 110 SE: 220 SO: 110 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 18.0S/78.9E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 16.8S/78.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE. 36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 15.1S/76.9E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 13.8S/75.8E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5 "CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM. "CARINA" IS NOT EXPECTED TO UNDERGO FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR ANOTHER INTENSIFICATION.