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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 35/10/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10 (EX-CARINA)

2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.2S / 78.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 1.0/2.0 /W 2.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1000 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: SE: 220 SO: 220 NO:

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM):
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 18.3S/79.0E, MAX WIND=025KT , TROP. DISTURBANCE.
24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.0S/77.0E, MAX WIND=020KT , DISSIPATING.


2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
"EX-CARINA" KEEPS ON WEAKENING, THE LOW LEVEL CLOCKWISE IS LARGELY EXPOSED, WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE RESIDUAL CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARDS UNDER THE STEERING OF THE BUILDING RIDGE WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
LAST WARNING FOR THIS SYSTEM, UNLESS REGENERATION.