Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/02 AT 1200 UTC : 13.2S / 57.3E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 1002 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 950 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 00 UTC: 13.5S/58.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.7S/58.4E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 16.0S/57.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 17.2S/56.5E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 18.5S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: BROAD LOW AREA STRETCHING FROM 45 TO 65E BETWEEN 08 AND 15S WITHIN A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.5S/51.0E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL.