Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/11/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 11 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.9S / 57.6E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 25 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/03 12 UTC: 14.6S/57.8E, MAX WIND=030KT , TROP. DEPRESSION. 24H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 15.4S/57.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 16.5S/56.9E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 17.8S/55.5E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 19.3S/53.7E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.4S/52.3E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.0+ CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER A SECONDARY WEAK LOW 1002 HPA IS DISCERNIBLE NORTH OF MADAGASCR WITH CENTRE NEAR 11.4S/51.6E. THE CYCLOGENESIS POTENTIAL IS IMPORTANT FOR THE MAIN CIRCULATION (THE EASTERN ONE). THE QUESTION STILL MORE OPENED IS : WHAT IS THE POTENTIAL OF THE WESTERN LOW? THE MORE LIKELY IS THAT IT WOULD DISSIPATE WHILE BEING STEERED EASTWARD ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO WOULD SEE BOTH CIRCULATIONS DEEPEN TOGETHER WITH INDUCED BINARY INTERACTION (FUJIWHARA EFFECT) BEFORE MERGING -THIS SCENARIO KEEPING ON BEING THE ONE CONSIDERED BY THE UKMO MODEL.