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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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*************** CORRECTIVE **************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/11/20052006
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11

2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6S / 58.0E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 220

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/03 18 UTC: 17.0S/57.0E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 18.1S/56.1E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.1S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 20.2S/53.8E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 21.5S/52.0E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 23.2S/50.8E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=2.5
THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE IN RELATIONSHIP WITH A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE AND THE INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON.