Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.4S / 57.3E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 00 UTC: 17.4S/56.6E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.4S/55.7E, MAX WIND=040KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4S/54.2E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/52.7E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.0S/51.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.3S/51.1E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5+ THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION REMAINS VERY LARGE DUE A VERY ACTIVE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE IMPLIES A RATHER WIDE EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY WIDE EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS.