Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/03 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8S / 56.9E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 150 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 06 UTC: 17.8S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 18.7S/54.9E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.4S/53.7E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.3S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.3S/51.6E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 22.5S/50.7E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DVORAK ANALYSIS DOES NOT ALLOW TO PROPERLY ANALYSE THIS SYSTEM THAT SHOWS A MONSOON DEPRESSION STRUCTURE; RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE, AND BROAD EXTENSION OF MAXIMIUM WINDS AND CLOUD BANDS. ENVIRONMENT IS FAVOURABLE BUT DUE TO THIS PARTICULARLY BROAD EXTENSION, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 11.5S/55.0E AT 1407Z ON WINDSAT IMAGERY WHERE THE CENTRE IS RATHER WELL DEFINED.