Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 7/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.7S / 56.7E (SEVENTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SIX DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 1.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SO: 150 NO: 100 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 12 UTC: 18.9S/55.9E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 20.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 21.0S/53.6E, MAX WIND=055KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.1S/52.4E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.5S/51.2E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 25.0S/50.3E, MAX WIND=080KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.0- THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO CHANGE OF STRUCTURE; OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION HAS CONSOLIDATED CLOSE TO THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO UNDERGO WESTERLY WINDSHEAR. RADAR IMAGERY AT LA REUNION DOES NOT SHOW CLEAR CENTRE FEATURE YET. DIWA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON INTENSIFY GRADUALLY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTHWESTWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST. A SECOND MINIMUM EXISTS NORTHEAST OF MADAGASCAR, LOCATED NEAR 12.0S/55.0E