Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 8/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 0600 UTC : 18.3S / 55.5E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /D 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 600 SE: 600 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/04 18 UTC: 19.0S/54.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.8S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.4S/53.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 21.0S/52.0E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 60H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 21.8S/50.9E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 72H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 22.5S/49.6E, MAX WIND=030KT, TROP. DEPRESSION. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS, AND MAY BE PARTIALLY INFLUENCE BY A SLIGHT FUJIWARA EFFECT (BINARY INTERACTION) WITH AN OTHER WEAK LOW LOCATED SOUTH OF AGALEGA ISLAND (TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NR 12).