Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 9/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1200 UTC : 18.5S / 54.6E (EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 600 SE: 600 SO: 060 NO: 060 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/05 00 UTC: 19.0S/53.0E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/51.7E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 20.9S/51.0E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 21.8S/50.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 22.3S/49.7E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 22.8S/49.2E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED NORTH-WEST OF THE CONVECTION, UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS OF WEAK INTENSITY, BUT WITH STRONG WINDS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT UNDER CONVECTION AND WITH THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSYTEM IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH THE WEAKENING OF THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE MINIMUM IN THE NORTH AND ALSO THE WEAKENING OF THE TROUGH IN THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM UP TO 24 HOURS. THE TRACK IS NOW WEST SOUTH-WESTWARDS, THEN SOUTHWESTWARDS, THEN IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STOPED BY THE HIGH PRESSURES REBUIDING IN THE SOUTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM.