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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 10/11/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA)

2.A POSITION 2006/03/04 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.8S / 53.9E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 35 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/05 06 UTC: 19.5S/52.5E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/05 18 UTC: 20.9S/51.7E, MAX WIND=035KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/06 06 UTC: 22.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 23.1S/50.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 24.1S/50.3E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
72H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.0S/51.0E, MAX WIND=070KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE : THE LLCC CENTRE IS LARGELY EXPOSED NORTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION ; THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE LOCATED RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MAINLY SOUTHWESTWARDS, AND SHOULD GAIN MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR AN INTENSIFICATION IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.