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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 11/11/20052006
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA)

2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 0000 UTC :
WITHIN 60 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1S / 53.8E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 550 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/05 12 UTC: 20.0S/53.1E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 21.1S/52.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.5S/51.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
48H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 23.4S/51.5E, MAX WIND=060KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
60H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 24.2S/51.6E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.
72H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/52.5E, MAX WIND=065KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT : THE NORTH AND THE EAST OF REUNION ISLAND REMAIN UNDER THE THIS STRONG ACTIVITY AS MAURITIUS NOW GAINS LESS SEVERE WEATHER. THE RECENT ANIMATED IR-M5 IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE NORTHWESTERLY CONSTRAINT IS NOW WEAKER AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO GAIN FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS FOR A NEW INTENSIFICATION WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.