Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 13/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/05 AT 1200 UTC : 21.0S / 54.0E (TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FOUR DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 550 SO: 220 NO: 110 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 00 UTC: 22.0S/54.2E, MAX WIND=045KT , MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 23.0S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.2S/54.9E, MAX WIND=060KT , SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=065KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 60H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.8S/56.4E, MAX WIND=070KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 72H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.9S/57.6E, MAX WIND=075KT , TROPICAL CYCLONE. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.