Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 15/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 0000 UTC : 22.1S / 53.0E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 350 SE: 700 SO: 350 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 12 UTC: 22.8S/53.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 23.6S/53.1E, MAX WIND=045KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.0S/54.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.5S/55.1E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 28.3S/56.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 72H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 31.0S/58.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM INTENSITY REMAINS MODERATE, MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND RATHER FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT EFFECT WITH THE RIDGE IN THE SOUTHEAST. "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS A LITTLE TROUGH. IT IS EXPECTED INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BEYOND 24 HOURS DUE TO BETTER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, MAINLY AN HIGHER UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND A WEAKENING VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WITH A TRACK SOUTHEASTWARDS, ACCELERATING.