Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 0600 UTC : WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.5S / 52.2E (TWENTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/06 18 UTC: 23.5S/52.2E, MAX WIND=045KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 24.8S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 26.0S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 27.3S/54.2E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 29.0S/55.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 31.0S/56.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: DIWA KEEPS ON TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTRED IN THE SOUTHEAST, TOWARDS A WEAKNESS OF THESE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT DATA AT 0200Z, STRONG WINDS EXISTS NOW ALL AROUND THE CENTRE. ENVIRONMENT REMAINS RELATIVELY FAVORABLE TO AN INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD UNDERGO AN INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND BEYOND BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.