Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 17/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 1200 UTC : 23.1S / 52.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 993 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 00 UTC: 24.1S/52.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 25.2S/52.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 26.4S/53.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.7S/53.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 29.3S/54.8E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 31.5S/56.0E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO SLOWLY ORGANIZE AS A CURVED BAND PATTERN. BEYOND 25S, DIWA SHOULD UNDERGO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND THUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. DIWA KEEPS ON SLOWLY TRACKING SOUTHWARDS, SLOWING DOWN BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES IN THE SOUTH-WEST. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, DIWA SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND START TO EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS THANKS TO A TROUGH.