Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 18/11/20052006 1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/06 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.7S / 52.5E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.0/3.0 /S 0.0/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 990 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 40 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 06 UTC: 24.4S/52.6E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.6S/53.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 26.9S/53.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 28.4S/54.3E, MAX WIND=040KT, MODERATE TROP. STORM. 60H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 30.4S/55.4E, MAX WIND=040KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 33.3S/58.5E, MAX WIND=040KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: A BOUY LOCATED NEAR 22.1S/53.4E SHOWS AT 1600UTC A SEA LEVEL PRESSURE AT 996.1 HPA. IT REPRESENTS A FALL OF -1.0 HPA IN RELATION TO 24H BEFORE EVEN TROUGH THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF. THE MSLP IS LIKELY WEAKENING IN THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. BEYOND 25S, DIWA SHOULD UNDERGO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND THUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. DIWA KEEPS ON SLOWLY TRACKING GLOBALLY SOUTHWARDS, SLOWING DOWN BY A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL HIGH PESSURES IN THE SOUTH-WEST. BEYOND 36 TO 48 HOURS, DIWA SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND START TO EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS THANKS TO A TROUGH.