Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

*************** CORRECTIVE ************** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 19/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5S / 53.4E (TWENTY THREE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/07 12 UTC: 24.4S/53.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/54.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 26.7S/55.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 48H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 28.1S/56.2E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 30.2S/57.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 00 UTC: 32.0S/61.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED. "DIWA" HAS VEERED SOUTHEASTWARDS AND INTENSIFYIED IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO GRADIENT EFFECT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. BEYOND 25S, DIWA SHOULD UNDERGO INCREASING WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AND THUS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS AND THEN TO ACCELERATE DURING EVACUATING BEYOND 48 HOURS AND BEGINNING AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND START TO EVACUATE SOUTHEASTWARDS THANKS TO A TROUGH.