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Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00 Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48 Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

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RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 20/11/20052006
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA)

2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 0600 UTC :
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.2S / 53.4E
(TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 250 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250
50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2006/03/07 18 UTC: 25.1S/54.1E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
24H: 2006/03/08 06 UTC: 26.0S/54.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM.
36H: 2006/03/08 18 UTC: 27.7S/56.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
48H: 2006/03/09 06 UTC: 30.0S/57.4E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL.
60H: 2006/03/09 18 UTC: 33.0S/59.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.
72H: 2006/03/10 06 UTC: 36.0S/63.0E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=CI=3.5
"DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON TRACKING MAINLY SOUTHEASTWARDS, WITHOUT INTENSIFYING SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO THE SLIGHT WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ; "DIWA" SHOULD SPEED UP BEYOND TAU 36H TOWARDS THE TROUGH, AND START ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.