Direction Interrégionale de LA REUNION
B.P.4    97491 Ste Clotilde Cedex
Téléphone                02.62.92.11.00
Fax exploitation      02.62.92.11.48
Fax direction           02.62.92.11.47

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 21/11/20052006 1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 11 (DIWA) 2.A POSITION 2006/03/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.6S / 53.8E (TWENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY THREE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 3.5/3.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 985 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 50 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 300 SE: 500 SO: 350 NO: 250 50 KT NE: 020 SE: 040 SO: 040 NO: 020 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 1000 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2006/03/08 00 UTC: 25.4S/55.0E, MAX WIND=055KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 24H: 2006/03/08 12 UTC: 27.1S/55.9E, MAX WIND=050KT, SEVERE TROP. STORM. 36H: 2006/03/09 00 UTC: 30.4S/57.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 48H: 2006/03/09 12 UTC: 33.9S/60.3E, MAX WIND=050KT, BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL. 60H: 2006/03/10 00 UTC: 37.2S/63.8E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 72H: 2006/03/10 12 UTC: 40.6S/69.5E, MAX WIND=050KT, EXTRATROPICAL. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=3.5 "DIWA" IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARDS. MAXIMUM WINDS EXTEND FAR FROM THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO THE GRADIENT WITH SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURES. DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TRACK SLOWLY, AN INTENSIFICATION IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING NIGHTIME BUT THE WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. BEYOND TAU 24 TO 36H, "DIWA" IS EXPECTED TO SPEED UP, FOLLOWING A SOUTHEASTWARDS TRACK TOWARDS THE TROUGH AND TO START THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION.